The structure and dynamics of the world grain market in the context of the war in Ukraine

Pobochenko Lesya
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Head of International Economic Relations and Business Department, National Aviation University, Ukraine , e-mail: lesya.pobochenko50@gmail.com, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3094-6417

Kysil Vitalii
Postgraduate Student of International Economic Relations and Business Department, National Aviation University, Ukraine, e-mail: 2104788@stud.nau.edu.ua, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0009-005-8818-7360

Cite this article:

Pobochenko, L., & Kysil, V. (2024). The structure and dynamics of the world grain market in the context of the war in Ukraine [Struktura ta dynamika svitovoho rynku zerna u konteksti viiny v Ukraini], Socio-economic research bulletin; Vìsnik socìal’no-ekonomìčnih doslìdžen’ (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economic University, Odessa, No. 1-2 (88-89), рр. 181-190.

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of modern trends of the world grain market development in the context of the war in Ukraine. It is proved that russian aggression against Ukraine has increased risks to global food security and caused disruptions in agricultural production, supply chains and trade, which led to an unprecedented increase in global food prices. The authors analyzed the structure and dynamics of the world grain market in the period of 2019/2023 MY and considered the forecast for 2023/2024 MY. Trends of the world grain market development regarding the volume of production, supply, consumption, world trade, and final stocks of grains (wheat, fodder crops, and rice) are studied. It is emphasized that in the conditions of the war in Ukraine, the country continues to be one of the leading producers and exporters of grain in the world. It was determined that since the beginning of russian aggression, the world began to feel the insufficiency of Ukrainian grain, and although the export of grain may decrease, the forecast data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) indicate an increase in the production, export and stocks of grain in the world. The dynamics and structure of world production, supply, consumption, world trade and stocks of grain crops in the current period and their forecast are evaluated. The article draws attention to the fact that, according to estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the volume of grain production in the world will reach a record level in 2023. The authors determined the main factors that have a negative impact on the grain market of Ukraine. According to the research results, the ways of solving problems in the grain market of Ukraine are proposed and the main directions of its development are outlined. Recommendations for increasing the production and export of grain crops in the world in the conditions of the war in Ukraine are formulated.

Keywords

world grain market; world trade; food safety; FAO; producing countries; price index; export potential; world exporters.

JEL classification: Q170; Q110; F170; DOI:https://doi.org/10.33987/vsed.1-2(88-89).2024.181-190

UD classification: 339.13.05:633.1"364"(477)(045)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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