Financial prospects of foreign trade in Ukrainian services with Eastern European countries

Totska Olesia
Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor of Finance Department, Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University, Ukraine, e-mail: Totska.Olesia@vnu.edu.ua, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4748-2134

Cite this article:

Totska, О. (2022). Financial prospects of foreign trade in Ukrainian services with Eastern European countries [Finansovi perspektyvy zovnishnoi torhivli posluhamy Ukrainy z krayinamy Skhidnoi Yevropy], Socio-economic research bulletin; Vìsnik socìal’no-ekonomìčnih doslìdžen’ (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economic University, Odessa, No. 1-2 (80-81), pp. 122-133.

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive analysis and forecasting of exports and imports of services between Ukraine and neighboring countries: Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the Republic of Moldova. The purpose of the article is to determine the financial prospects of foreign trade in services of Ukraine with the countries of Eastern Europe. The analysis was conducted on the basis of statistical data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2011–2021. The method of trend extrapolation was used to forecast indicators for three years (2022–2024). Five trend models (exponential, linear, logarithmic, polynomial, and power) were constructed for each indicator and one with the largest values of the reliability of the approximation R² was chosen. The calculation and construction of charts was done using Microsoft Excel. The limits within which the total export of services from Ukraine and the total import of services to Ukraine were in the analyzed period were determined; their dynamics is investigated. It is established that in 2021 the largest shares in the export of Ukrainian services belonged to such types as transport services; services in the sphere of telecommunications, computer and information services; services for the processing of material resources; business services. It was found that in 2021 the largest share in the total import of services was occupied by transport services; services connected with travels; business services; state and government services. It is determined that in 2011–2021, among the four neighboring Eastern European countries, Ukraine exported the most services to Poland; the largest shares in imports of services also belonged to Poland. It is established that the most adequate export and import of services between Ukraine and Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the Republic of Moldova describe exponential and polynomial models. According to the forecast models, the growth of export operations with services of Ukraine with all analyzed countries is expected, import – with all, except Slovakia. It was found that the values of the reliability of the approximation R² in only two cases were >0.9 (exports of services to Poland and Romania), which is due to the unstable dynamics of most indicators. The possibilities of using the obtained data for the formation of Ukraine’s foreign policy and determining areas of cooperation with neighboring countries are indicated. To deepen the study, it is recommended to analyze and forecast export-import trade transactions of Ukraine with Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and the Republic of Moldova.

Keywords

export; imports; services; balance of trade; analysis; prognostication; trendy models.

JEL classification:С530; F100; F170; F470; DOI:https://doi.org/10.33987/vsed.1-2(80-81).2022.122-133

UD classification: 339.5(477:4-11)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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