Statistical study of the state and development of foreign trade of Ukraine

Olha Mylashko
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Odessa National Economic University, Ukraine, e-mail: mylashko@ukr.net, ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7963-4318

Cite this article:

Mylashko, O. (2021). Statistical study of the state and development of foreign trade of Ukraine [Statystychne doslidzhennia stanu ta rozvytku zovnishnoi torhivli Ukrainy], Socio-economic research bulletin; Vìsnik socìal’no-ekonomìčnih doslìdžen’ (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economic University, Odessa, No. 1 (76), pp. 191–202.

Abstract

The directions of statistical analysis of the country’s foreign trade processes are considered in the article. Possibilities of statistical methods for studying the state and the main trends that have developed in this area are highlighted. The conclusions about the intensity of the dynamics of the trade balance indicators are generalized. The processes of the outstripping development of imports over exports are highlighted. The dynamics of the balance of export-import operations is analyzed and trends of its deterioration are demonstrated. The degree of coverage of imports by exports and the processes of formation of the trade balance deficit are investigated in time. The directions of development of characteristics of the balance of foreign trade operations are studied. High levels of export and import dependence of the country have been demonstrated, which leads to vulnerability to external shocks and instability in the world. The results of the analysis of the structure and structural shifts in the trade of Ukraine with the countries of the Visegrad Four are presented. The emphasis is made on the prospects of interrelations with this group of countries from the point of view of using their experience in preparing for accession to the EU. The article demonstrates more intensive changes in the geographical structure of exports than imports and highlights the tendencies towards an increase in the role of Poland and a decrease in Hungary in the export-import operations of the Visegrad Four with Ukraine. The processes of changing the terms of trade have been investigated in terms of changes in export and import prices and in terms of changes in the physical volume of exports and imports on the example of a group of dairy products, which are widely represented among both export and import goods of Ukraine. The index method was used to analyze the absolute and relative impact of changes in prices and the physical volume of exports and imports of a number of dairy products on the value of exports and imports. Changes in the terms of trade are highlighted by constructing quantitative and price indices of the terms of trade. It was clarified that it was the sharp reduction in the physical volume of exports that contributed to the decrease in foreign exchange earnings from the export of dairy products. The necessity of measures to promote domestic goods abroad, primarily to European countries, has been substantiated. The research results can be used in foreign trade policy at the macro level.

Keywords

export-import operations; foreign trade balance; coverage of imports by exports; Visegrad group; terms of trade index.

JEL classification: C150; F140; DOI: https://doi.org/10.33987/vsed.1(76).2021.191-202

UD classification: 311:339.5.053

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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