Features of forecasting of local budgets in the United States of America

Marina Dedusheva
Postgraduate student of Finance Department, National State Tax Service University of Ukraine, e-mail:dedushm@gmail.com

Cite this article:

Dedusheva, M. (2015), Features of forecasting of local budgets in the United States of America. Ed.: M. Zveryakov (ed.-in-ch.) and others [Osoblyvosti prohnozuvannia dokhodiv mistsevykh biudzhetiv u USA; za red.: M. I. Zveriakova (gol. red.) ta in.], Socio-economic research bulletin (ISSN 2313-4569), Odessa National Economic University, Odessa, Issue 2, No. 57, pp. 51–60.

Abstract

The article provides a short overview of methodological, organizational and legal aspects of tax revenue forecasting in the federal entities of the United States. On the example of Indiana State the organizational structure of the tax forecasting and planning in the system of budget management of the country is represented. The characteristic of executive bodies, involved in the preparation of tax revenue forecast of the state is given. Obtained results had shown that in the process of tax revenues forecasting many methods were used, which differed greatly by the level of complexity. This level defines in detail how the models can reproduce the dependence of future tax revenues from a variety of changes in the tax system. It was found that the accuracy of the forecast can be significantly improved by combining several separate methods what makes it possible to increase the reliability of the forecasts by reducing the prediction error and a more efficient usage of the available information.

Keywords

tax planning; tax forecasting; tax revenues; budget system; local budget; the consensus forecast.

JEL classification: C 530, H710

UD classification: 336.22:352:[338.27]

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